Deeply substantive column. Thank you for sharing that beautiful anecdote in the end, Richard.
The uncertainty surrounding the new Euro anacronym process is very reminiscent of the College Football Playoff (CFP--another anacronym you all will appreciate) media rights negotiations. For UEFA there is an intermediary guaranteeing (vs direct sale to the media companies in the CFP negotiations), but the tremendous uncertainties over basics like "changes in future formats", "will there be a super league/super conference", "will linear tv still exist that far out in the future?" are quite similar. In these cases, the strongest, most confident bidder is usually the one who feels they have the greatest influence/control over those future uncertainties.
In the case of the CFP, it's Disney/ESPN, who has been written about in many forums as being the purchaser of the rights and then the man behind the curtain that reinforces the value of those rights by moving massive schools from other conferences into the conference that they control the rights on. ( https://awfulannouncing.com/ncaa/fbs-ad-fox-espn-realignment-valuations.html ).
I know nothing about the Euro process but the interesting bidder for me is someone who believes they can influence format/participant changes in the future that will give them high confidence or a "guarantee" they hit the number. Think: they can influence including teams from the US or Brazil into future Champions league and thus be able to sell massive "domestic" rights in those markets that mitigates a lot of the uncertainty about how the European media rights market will evolve.
This example isn't the right one but that's the kind of the thinking or capacity to influence that could drive someone to bid "confidently" on the guarantee that Euro Anacronym is seeking.
Thank you for writing the most thoughtful piece on this topic that has been published to date.
Deeply substantive column. Thank you for sharing that beautiful anecdote in the end, Richard.
The uncertainty surrounding the new Euro anacronym process is very reminiscent of the College Football Playoff (CFP--another anacronym you all will appreciate) media rights negotiations. For UEFA there is an intermediary guaranteeing (vs direct sale to the media companies in the CFP negotiations), but the tremendous uncertainties over basics like "changes in future formats", "will there be a super league/super conference", "will linear tv still exist that far out in the future?" are quite similar. In these cases, the strongest, most confident bidder is usually the one who feels they have the greatest influence/control over those future uncertainties.
In the case of the CFP, it's Disney/ESPN, who has been written about in many forums as being the purchaser of the rights and then the man behind the curtain that reinforces the value of those rights by moving massive schools from other conferences into the conference that they control the rights on. ( https://awfulannouncing.com/ncaa/fbs-ad-fox-espn-realignment-valuations.html ).
I know nothing about the Euro process but the interesting bidder for me is someone who believes they can influence format/participant changes in the future that will give them high confidence or a "guarantee" they hit the number. Think: they can influence including teams from the US or Brazil into future Champions league and thus be able to sell massive "domestic" rights in those markets that mitigates a lot of the uncertainty about how the European media rights market will evolve.
This example isn't the right one but that's the kind of the thinking or capacity to influence that could drive someone to bid "confidently" on the guarantee that Euro Anacronym is seeking.
Thank you for writing the most thoughtful piece on this topic that has been published to date.